In the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Phoenix was one of the top two teams that survived in the tournament until July. This year, they were also one of the top favorites to win the 2023-2024 NBA championship along with Boston and Denver at the start of the season. However, the Suns ended the regular season in 6th place in the Western Conference, which was far below people’s expectations. So, what made Phoenix collapse?
The biggest change throughout these four seasons was the change in the roster. In 2022, after James Jones became the new general manager of the team, the squad underwent a major shake-up. Although it is not easy to retain players for multiple seasons, the Phoenix Suns dramatically changed their roster in pursuit of their first-ever championship trophy. While maintaining their win-now strategy, they traded many key players, such as Mikal Bridges, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton, for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, dreaming of becoming a super team. However, the reality was an absolute disaster. They focused too much of their payroll on the big three (Booker, Durant, Beal), which led to a lack of depth in their roster (lack of ball carriers, point guards, 3-and-D players, etc.). They still have $150 million owed next season to Booker, Beal, and Durant, which is more than 14 teams' total payroll in 2024-25.
The future of this team looks bleak as the Suns have to manage the contracts for the big three for at least two more years. Beal has $160 million remaining on his contract and still maintains a no-trade clause. Booker's $221 million supermax extension starts in July, and Durant has two years and $106 million left on the extension he signed with Brooklyn in 2021. Durant's contract includes two more years ($51.2 and $54.7 million) and he is eligible to sign a one-year extension, which would pay him $59.7 million in 2026-27 when he turns 38 years old. Because of the Over-38 rule, one year is the maximum that Phoenix can offer. Durant played 75 games this season, his most since 2018-19. The Suns enter this offseason with $209 million in salary, the biggest payroll of any NBA team. Other than the big three’s contracts, Allen's extension has increased the Suns' projected luxury tax penalty to $116 million. They are also $16.3 million over the second apron. Gordon, Okogie, Lee, and Eubanks have until June 29 to opt into their contracts for next season. Phoenix can use the veteran's minimum in free agency to replace each player if they leave. Moreover, combining the salaries of Grayson Allen, Jusuf Nurkic, and Nassir Little in a trade is not allowed, even if the Suns take back less money. Allen also cannot be traded until Oct. 16 because he signed an extension. Phoenix also cannot send out cash in a trade, use the $5.1 million taxpayer midlevel exception, or acquire a player in a sign-and-trade. The $6.5 million trade exception created in the Cameron Payne trade is frozen. If the Suns finish the 2024-25 season over the second apron, their 2032 first-round pick will not be available in a trade.
Among these burdensome contracts, Beal’s contract made Phoenix the most noncommittal. Adding Beal's contract to their payroll pushed the Suns deep into luxury tax territory. This increases the financial burden on the team due to luxury tax payments, which are significantly higher for teams exceeding the salary cap by large amounts. Also, due to the contract, the Suns must rely on minimum salary contracts, veteran exceptions, and other cost-effective means to fill out their roster. This can affect their depth and the overall balance of the team. The high payroll even limits the Suns' ability to take on additional contracts in trades. Matching salaries in trades becomes more complex and often requires parting with valuable assets or draft picks. Finally, Beal's stats (PTS: 18.2; REB: 4.4; AST: 5.0; FG%: 51.3) for this season are not enough to meet expectations.
In terms of trade assets, the team needs a point guard to organize the offense, high-level rotation players, and defensive versatility in the backcourt. Therefore, it is almost definitive that they will draft a point guard who can stay on the team with Devin Booker. However, rebuilding their team is almost impossible since they have limited draft picks. Phoenix has a pick in June and can trade both that and its 2031 pick starting the night of the draft. The Suns owe Brooklyn unprotected firsts in 2025, 2027, and 2029. The Nets also have the right to swap their own first or Philadelphia's (if 9-30) with Phoenix in 2028. The Wizards have the right to swap firsts in 2026 (if 1-8), 2028 (if 1-8), and 2030. Orlando or Memphis then have the right to swap their 2026 first with the less favorable of Phoenix's and Washington's. The Wizards also have the right to swap the least favorable of the Nets', Suns', and 76ers' first in 2028. Memphis also has the right to swap the less favorable of Phoenix and Washington in 2030. The Suns have two second-round picks available.
Overall, the Phoenix Suns have a limited number of draft picks and a limited number of quality players, placing the team between a rock and a hard place. However, this offseason, James Jones fired the original head coach (Frank Vogel) and appointed a new head coach (Michael Budenholzer). After changing their head coach, they announced that they would be ‘very aggressive’ in trading for win-now players between now and draft night with a 2024 first-round NBA Draft pick (No. 22 overall), their 2031 first-round pick, and even one player like Nassir Little, who could easily be included in a deal for a veteran piece to add to the roster.
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